Work Package 1

Analysis of energy policies, trends and existing scenarios from the national to the worldwide level

Objectives

  • To provide a key-grid of policies, trends and scenarios concerning energy security and low carbon transition that Europe is experiencing and is likely to experience
  • To assess the geographical differentiation among member states in pursuing European policies and objectives towards a low carbon society
  • To explore different geopolitical scenarios and spatial tensions originated by the investments in new technologies, infrastructures and politico-economic alliances.

Description of work and role of partners

The analysis is twofold: on the one hand, key sources of information will refer to existing scientific literature and ongoing debates (including the analysis of earlier European and non-European and institutional and non-institutional projects, reports and publications); on the other hand empirical analysis will refer to actual socio-political problems, trends and policies. The empirical analysis will develop across several overlapping geographical and conceptual scales. WP1 will mainly focus on macro-regional scales, and the activity will be organized in four main tasks.

Task 1.1. Definition of the methodological approaches in multidimensional analysis of energy policies and scenarios

It will refer to the definition of key indicators and conceptual frameworks that will be implemented in order to explore: a) the historical evolution of energy policies and their external dimensions (political, legal, regulatory, socio-economic, environmental, etc.) at the global and European scales; b) the ongoing evolution of international debates concerning energy security and transition (including questions of resilience, adaptation to and mitigation of climate change) both among policy / decision makers and within the scientific community. A systemic perspective on energy security will be developed and linked to the conceptual aims of the MILESECURE project. Key existing literature on energy policies will be critically engaged with a view towards providing a set of methodological requirements for effectively assessing energy system security in a rigorous and transparent manner.
Task leader: POLITO. Other partners involved: JRC, PLUS, ENEA, LSC.

Task 1.2. Exploration of macro-regional future energy scenarios for different world macro-regions

A critical comparative review of macro-regional energy scenarios proposed in the scientific literature will be carried on. The comparative analysis will consider different technological options for energy generation and comparing institutional and non-institutional energy scenarios (i.e. WETO, WEO, IEO, Greenpeace scenarios, etc.). Also, it will be proposed a geographical-chronological analysis of different technological solutions (implemented and debated) and plausible future trends.
Task leader: SMASH. Other partners involved: POLITO, LSC, IEn, EnergSys. SMASH will contribute to the review of macro-regional energy scenarios proposed in the scientific literature scenarios (i.e. WETO, WEO, IEO, Greenpeace scenarios, etc.) with its expertise in modelling exercises.

Task 1.3. Analysis of main trends in European energy policy and of European geographies of energy security, technology and economics

The analysis will develop a review of European policies and strategies for a low carbon society and their implications on environmental and energy policies, and on national and continental performances. Also, it will be carried on a geographical analysis of current economic, social and sustainability trends for EU member states, making reference to a set of indicators useful for successive WPs. Task leader: POLITO with contributions by Ecologic, ENEA, JRC.

Task 1.4. Definition of macro-regional scenarios of energy security

First, it will be proposed an evaluation of geopolitical tensions and their link with energy costs (e.g. new energy corridors, new physical infrastructures, new energy options, new anti-speculation mechanisms), and an exploration of potential regional and macro-regional conflicts (e.g. Caspian question, access to African oil, Middle East conflicts, new Euro-Mediterranean corridors, etc) and of their links with economic medium and long-term strategies of governments and private companies. Secondly, a critical analysis of renewable energy related mega-projects (such as Mediterranean Solar Plan and Desertech proposal), both public and private and their influence in fostering new scalar and spatial geopolitical alliances will be carried on. Finally, a comparative analysis will concern regional and national environmental/energy policies in Europe and their impacts and effects on social and economic everyday life. The synergies and trade-off between climate change policies and energy security will be assessed, to identify the technological components of a energy system at same time secure and low-carbon.
Task leader: POLITO with the participation of JRC, Ecologic, USAL.