The fifth WCERE - World Congress on Environment and Resource Economics (Istanbul, 28 June – 2 July 2014) is a main forum for environment and resource economists around the world. The findings of a study conducted with the IMACLIM model on the energy security issues in Europe partly supported by the MILESECURE-2050 project were presented in a poster session dedicated to Climate issues and included in the below paper.
Energy security improvement is often presented as a possible co-benefit of climate policies. This paper evaluates this claim. It presents a methodology to investigate whether climate policy would improve energy security, while accounting for the difficulties entailed by the many-faceted nature of the energy security concept and the large uncertainties on the determinants of future changes in energy systems. To do so, it uses a set of indicators in a four-dimension analysis grid of the energy security concept, and a database of scenarios exploring the uncertainty space. The results, focusing on Europe, reveal there is no unequivocal effect of climate policy on all the dimensions of energy security and that some trade-offs are involved. The many-faceted nature of energy security matters: energy security has several dimensions, some of which can be heightened by climate policy. Time matters: the effect of climate policy on energy security depends on the time horizon considered. Last, these results are robust to key uncertainties on the future potential and costs of technologies, on future improvements in energy efficiency, on fossil fuel resources and markets and on drivers of economic growth. However, some of these uncertainties determine the magnitude of the effect of climate policy on energy security indicators.