This deliverable is about the geopolitics of energy security. It originates from the results and the analysis of trends defined in the previous Deliverable 1.3. It is articulated in four main parts.
The first section is about problems concerning energy in a global scenario: it proposes an evaluation of geopolitical tensions between different areas in the world. New energy corridors, physical infrastructures and an exploration of potential regional and macro-regional conflicts (e.g. Caspian question, access to African oil, Middle East conflicts, etc) are analysed. The information, perspectives and key nodes for EU energy security are combined and represented through qualitative mapping and visual representations. This task will be performed by working on a geographical synthetic image of key areas for EU energy security, strategic spatial development zones, key corridors and functional-energetic macro-regions from the perspective of the EU.
The second part analyses renewable energy (and related) mega-projects and their influence on energy security and fostering new geopolitical relationships. Two studies of renewable energy mega-projects visions are presented (DESERTEC and the North Sea Offshore Grid) and mini-case studies are conducted on pilot projects under development and associated with the visions (Ouarzazate CSP and Kriegers Flak).
The third part is about the realisation of reduction targets assigned by 20/20/20 package and the National Renewable Energy Action Plans; it offers, also, a general review concerning national environmental and energy policies in Europe and their impacts and effects on social and economic everyday life.
The forth part conceptualises the links between energy security and low-carbon policies and it introduces a methodological framework to assess their interactions. This section outlines the modelling tools used for the assessment and it elaborates on the input assumptions guiding the scenario analysis.